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Abstract
The aim of this research is to evaluate changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in Dong Ha City, Quang Tri Province from 2013 to 2023 based on Landsat 8 OLI satellite data analysis and prediction of LULC change. Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) was applied to identify the types of land use, land cover. LULC maps in 2013, 2018, and 2023 built had good accuracy scores (Kappa index > 0.75). Over the 10-year period, Dong Ha City extended urban area, increasing by 484.7 ha. The area of agricultural land dropped by 585.5 ha, which was mostly transferred to urban land. For policies to restore natural forest and improve the quality of planted forest, forest land ascended by 34.2 ha. A part of land was exploited, therefore, its area decreased by 4.4 ha. Based on the history of LULC changes, DEM and spatial structure, the prediction of LULC maps in 2033 completed by Cellular automata - Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) in MOLUSCE plugin in QGIS. The prediction method had an accuracy at 69.3%. The urban land is predicted to keep increasing by 288.1 ha. On the contrary, the agricultural land and bare land will decrease by 141.7 ha and 166.6 ha respectively. The forest land and waterbody will slightly change.